/pub/history/military/nato/naa/dsc File: ak232dsc.e -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- NORTH ATLANTIC ASSEMBLY * DEFENCE AND SECURITY COMMITTEE * N.A.A. -=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- EUROATLANTIC SECURITY: ONE VIEWPOINT FROM BULGARIA Draft Special Report* Mr. Nikolay SLATINSKY (Bulgaria) Special Rapporteur International Secretariat October 1993 * Special Report submitted with the agreement of the Chairman to the Defence and Security Committee for background information. 1. On the eve of the 21st century, the world is undergoing tumultuous and dramatic changes. Gone are, it seems, the global ideological conflict and the bi-polar model of the great confrontation between two systems, between two superpowers surrounded by obediently orbiting satellites. 2. With the end of communism, the breakdown of the USSR, the Warsaw Pact and the CMEA, the balance of institutions, of armed forces, of spheres of influence and interests was seriously disturbed. The Euroatlantic area of security, although now unified and common, is not homogenous and areas of ethnic and/or religious conflicts constantly emerge within its boundaries. 3. When torrents of people, capitals, commodities and ideas started flowing across the debris of the Berlin Wall; when the Paris Charter heralded the dawn of a new, united Europe, few could imagine, that very soon the spectre of a new Iron Curtain would appear - the one between rich and poor. After the euphoria a merciless awakening to reality began. It appeared that the two global poles had also been Siamese twins. Deprived of its negation, Western civilization is struggling to adapt to change. But its actions are not convincing and its responses not adequate, because they stem from the interests not of the whole post-communist world, but principally from its own interests. The West is not prepared to pay its full share for the suffering and the difficult renaissance of Eastern Europe, to sacrifice a part of its comfort, prosperity and liberties. The disparities between the potentials of economic development and living standards shall give rise to fearful turbulent currents. Once on its way to the West, the East could hardly be stopped. Instead it should be motivated to remain within its native boundaries - through technological assistance, through a common market, through investments. Otherwise, all the drastic laws, police measures and skinheads will be helpless. 4. The drama has deeper roots. The very foundations of Western society are shaken. Liberal values are distorted, because there are serious reasons for disturbing the tranquillity and for qualms of conscience; because the Wall, which was keeping the sufferings of peoples under communism out of sight is no longer there; because today not far from Brussels cities are being demolished, women are being raped, humans are being killed; because in Russia economic chaos is swelling, which can degenerate into something no one knows at a time no one can tell. 5. The good old party system also manifests symptoms of crisis. Gradually, society starts to be dominated by the regional type of thinking and it has a much greater difficulty to blend into a national one the different political and economic interests which are frequently incompatible among the different regions. In exchange, it is much more susceptible to nationalism - an ostensibly integrating characteristic. Nationalism is an emotional attempt of society to counter the processes of transnational co-operation, which are dissolving the ethnic, religious and national self-conscience of individual peoples. Fearful of such a trend, Western Europe is jumping to the other extreme, carrying to excess the rights of minorities. This stimulates the fragmentation of States. The right to self-determination should have a lower threshold - no liberty should be justified, if it ruins the State (this should not be read as the empire), if it sows dissent, if it humiliates the majority. In addition, in any polyethnic State sooner or later the painful problem of reliable guarantees will arise; guarantees that every member of its parliament, irrespective of ethnic conscience, is protecting only the national interests. The integration of minorities is a process of mutual compromise and respect. Any minority must offer political guarantees, that it is not an agent of an alien will and is not acting under an alien influence. Once the process of amalgamation of geographical and ethnic borders has started, it may one day encompass the whole continent. Western society is harbouring very similar language, ethnic and religious conflicts: in Canada, Quebec; in Belgium, turned by Flemings and Walloons into a federal State; in Great Britain, Wales, Scotland, Northern Ireland; in France, the Corsicans; in Italy, the Lombardians and in Spain, Basques, Catalans. Now, at the end of the 20th century the precise formula of the State has not yet been found. Western Europe is based on collectivist thinking, but is searching for it within a circle of countries, which is geographically, economically and politically limited. 6. Even parliamentary democracy is being severely criticized for allowing scrambling and haggling in pursuit of group or collective, instead of political-social, interests. In many countries, for decades power has been held by the same leaders who, even if "wisely" succeeding each other, or even if not are, at best, only suspected of corruption, are certainly wearing down society. Elections themselves are becoming a boring detail - either they offer no alternative or, for fear of radical change, people vote to preserve the existing status quo, thus converting a number of ambitious, but nothing more than that, activists into life-long congressmen. 7. This bleak picture demonstrates that the revolutionary changes, which the world is undergoing, are transforming not only the former socialist bloc, and they call for a rethinking of all principles on which Western civilization is functioning. As an optimal model of civil society, it serves as an example for the countries of Eastern Europe, which have begun their emotional escape from the totalitarian regime without a concept of the transition to a market economy and without a clear idea of what they aspire to, except for the very general wish to create something like "the West". It is important to analyze and to prognosticate the morrow of the West, for which we have been yearning for decades -with the critical moments already overcome, with clarified new formulas for the solution of internal and external contradictions; it is precisely this optimized version of the West to which as adequate an approximation as possible should be sought. Only in this way can the blind limitation of a system which already belongs to the past be avoided. 8. The unique changes on the geopolitical map are a substantial feature of the period of transition. In a matter of months new regional powers have emerged - Germany, Turkey, Ukraine, Kazakhstan. Security is breaking up the borders and is occupying a central position on the world agenda. Gone are the hopes of starting a life free of aggressiveness and imperial ambitions. It seems that a nostalgia is surfacing for the great East-West confrontation, although many of today's conflicts have been ripening in its shadow. Precisely those who have been extracting dividends from the Cold War are now extracting dividends from the "hot peace". The number of consumers of security is increasing while the number of those creating it is falling. Against such a background, the renationalization of defence might soon take place - after so many years of collective effort and huge expenditure for the establishment of NATO and the WEU, of a unified security policy. Should this tendency be reproduced in other areas, it shall place in doubt the very new architecture of our continent, with its built-in institutions and processes of co-operation. 9. In the place of communism, which has collapsed, Islamic fundamentalism is rising, which is not only a religious phenomenon, but also an aggressive response to social cataclysms. Countries supporting international terrorism are gathering strength. The world is changing its moral co-ordinates and restructuring its strategic territory. America responded to these changes by parting from President Bush. Europe is still searching for its response. In politics the winning viewpoint is not the one founded on present day realities, but rather the analysis in perspective - in which interests, contradictions, coalitions may resurface or appear. For example, the triangle Great Britain-France-Germany for centuries has been of key importance to European security and just the same it has never been an equilateral one. Its instability created a need for leadership for Western Europe which it has found with the United States. Now Germany commands ever greater respect. It is fully aware what communism was - from the experience of the ex-GDR - and is now realizing how difficult it is to incorporate the Muslims into liberal Christian norms because of the hundreds of thousands of migrant Turkish and Arab workers. In a likely future model of United States/Western Europe/Russia, Germany may become the weight which shall tip the balance one way or another. The future of the European security structures also depends on the accent which Germany shall place on them on its way from regional to global power. 10. Even after becoming the only superpower with an impressive might, with the nimbus of the glorious victory in the spectacular Gulf battle, the United States are forced by their own problems to turn back their attention to their own country. Russia is heading the opposite way. Pressed by its disintegrating economy, it was hastily stricken out from big-time politics and was relegated to the Third World, on which conditions may be imposed with a peremptory tone. Today the West, ever more insistently, is advising the Baltic States to search not for a confrontation with Russia, but for ways to reduce the tension. It is being realized that no one can deny this great country the right to have its own geostrategic interests in different parts of the world and that no decision with global or regional dimensions can be effectively carried out without the consent and the support of Russia. 11. Political soothsayers are drawing up very grim perspectives for our continent. Its weakening and partitioning are a strategic aim of very powerful interests. They are taking advantage of Western Europe's surprising unwillingness to realize that the time of old alliances, formed before World War I, of the old thinking is over. Today they are still staking on "the stick and the carrot" and are waging a positional struggle for more efficient control of the fate of peoples. The Balladur plan is coyly promoting the possibility for partial redrawing of borders, while in Yugoslavia this is being done openly amidst bloodshed and violence. Precedents are unavoidable given the instability and the largely artificial character of the borders on the Balkans, which have been the result of the projection of the rivalries among the great powers in the region and of their neglect for the interests of the Balkan peoples. It seems that double standards and the policy of "faits accomplis" are the rule, rather than the exception in big-time politics. 12. According to an apt expression, the United Nations (UN) is an amorphous formation with exalted ideals, good intentions and goodwilled weakness. The growing number of claims for the status of permanent member of the Security Council are an indication of the importance of the change under way. Japan, Germany, India and others are searching to assume new roles, thus opening the floodgates for radical transformations of the entire framework and operation of the most important international bodies. The absence of a clear policy as regards the Yugoslavian-crisis leads to the imposition of economic sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro - sanctions which are certainly not a proof of strength. On the contrary, they are interpreted almost as washing one's hands of the issue, as an example of how the consequences, responsibilities and the concerns related to the observance of the sanctions are shifted upon the countries neighbouring on the State under embargo. These countries become the immediate victims of the strict measures, without being offered any prospect of compensation. When one injustice is being remedied by allowing another, this amounts to undermining the efforts of the world community and threatens to render them meaningless. The costs are enormous and they should be borne fairly and by all - just the way the severe decisions were taken by common will. Not having its own armed forces, infrastructure, the required financial backing, the UN is content with operations of maintenance - but not of establishment - of peace which have a low efficiency. Colin Powell warned that an operation would have a chance to succeed when its political objectives were clear. The political objectives should also be compatible with the available military resources and the mandate of the troops acting under the UN banner. The maintenance of peace is not an emotional or an incidental activity, it is a process which sometimes takes decades (ie. Cyprus). The criteria which draw the distinction between the interference in the internal affairs of a people and an operation to save its country are still not clear. Consequently, the tendency towards ever greater commitment of the international community to the solution of such internal problems from now on shall require a legal shape and juridical perfection. 13. If the UN is preoccupied with its own frailty, the task of the Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe is much more difficult - to tear through the shroud of endless discussions, to create the institutions, the potential and the mechanisms, indispensable to prognosticate, avert, localize and place conflicts under control. The forum is overburdened with the number of its participants - more than 50 - who have sometimes radically disparate problems. Regardless of the intensive reduction of conventional arms; of the deepening of confidence and security building measures; of the "Open Skies" plan; of the upgraded procedures for mutual control, the basis (the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe) is entirely rooted in the times of rivalry between the two military superblocs. Bulgaria is the most injured by this treaty. Belgrade is not a party to it; our southern neighbours, Greece and Turkey, have preserved their colossal superiority over us in terms of numerical strength of troops and have even modernized their military hardware. Nevertheless, the perspectives of the CSCE are bright and it shall occupy a central place among the security structures. A place where Bulgaria shall defend its principles, shall seek support and political guarantees for its own security. In future, the role of regional fora, built on the norms and committed to the spirit of the CSCE, shall grow and that makes us optimistic as regards the realization of the Bulgarian proposal for a Balkan Helsinki Process. 14. The decision of NATO to support operations for the maintenance of peace under the auspices of the UN and the CSCE is an adequate response to the new necessities. For the first time an agreement in principle is given for the Alliance's resources - the mechanisms for political consultations and military planning, the integrated military structures, the combat units, the communications to be utilized for actions outside the territories of its member countries. This is in the spirit of the new strategic concept of NATO, which is based on a broader understanding of security and demonstrates how interests displace geographical boundaries and the dynamism of the processes renders meaningless the differences between the notions of "within the zone" and "beyond the zone". NATO is undergoing a complicated process of adaptation to the changes, of controversy over the fair sharing of responsibilities, risks and the financial burden. The denial to admit new members is the result of apprehension that new contradictions and disputes might be brought from outside into the orderly organization of the Alliance, but it is necessary to analyze whether, if NATO cocoons itself, this may not permit these contradictions and disputes to degenerate later into unmanageable conflicts, which may require colossal efforts to resolve. Incidentally, Germany's Defence Minister Volke Ruhe has already pointed out that the enlargement of NATO should not make Russia feel isolated or set against Europe. He raised the issue of whether the integration of a country to the European Community should precede its accession to NATO, and also warned that the initial dualism TOTALITARIANISM-DEMOCRACY is being replaced by a new one INTEGRATION-DISINTEGRATION. Naturally, NATO should leave the cradle of the Cold War, with its two-dimensional thinking and its "yes-no" logic. If this Alliance wishes not to remain a giant, whose huge advantages are utilized inefficiently (if utilized at all), it should serve not only the security of its member States, but that of the European continent as well, thus contributing to the enlargement of the area of security in Europe. 15. The North Atlantic Cooperation Council (NACC) was established to accommodate the former socialist countries and that did stimulate their contacts with NATO, but after the admission to it of countries such as Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, things being diluted have started to fade. That is why Bulgaria, time and time again, has raised the issue of deepening its contacts and rapprochement with NATO. On that subject there is a consensus in society. We are confident that such a decision would be of mutual interest; it would strengthen the Southern Flank of the Alliance and would correspond to the country's role as a stabilizing factor on the Balkans. The processes of integration cannot be halted until economic standards become equal or at least close enough, or until democratic standards in Western and Eastern Europe become comparable. These processes are likely to take decades given the existing numerous obstacles in the way of economic integration. Only the integration in the field of security could take place within a shorter time frame. But to this end it is necessary to realize that the Balkans are not far away, that they belong to Europe and that whatever happens there is an inseparable element of European security. It is necessary to realize that the stability of Bulgaria is no less important than the stability of the Visegrad Group. In fact, how, in such dramatic and dangerous times, could it be contemplated that the security of one country is less precious than that of any other? 16. Gradually the Western European Union - the military component of European integration - is coming to the front of the intricate network of security structures. Ridiculed until very recently - as a sleeping beauty, which was frequently kissed, but which could not be awakened - today the WEU's radicalism is impressive. Ways are being sought for rapprochement and to define the WEU only as a European pillar of NATO. The story about the Franco-German corps, the peculiar section between NATO and the WEU, is instructive. Sometimes, the interaction and duplication between them leads to the use of two military units under one command and of one unit under two (NATO and WEU) commands. But contradictions should not be carried to excess. The ten members of the WEU are also members of NATO. The maxim is: what is needed is not more security organizations, but more security. The gradation of Western European structures is abstract. For us priorities and values are there, where guarantees, co-operation and support are more sincere and more efficient. 17. Still, in this hasty world, Bulgaria seems to be drifting alone along the stream of events. The old security guarantees, earned in exchange for a partial loss of State sovereignty, are non-existent. Storms are brewing nearby at a time when the old system in the country is demolished, and the new society is still in its infant stage. As regards the Black Sea Economic Co- operation our concerns are to ward off foreign ambitions for domination. In the Central European initiative, which is fading away, the formula "7 plus 4" is offering us the fictitious place to the right of the "plus". The Visegrad Group, without visibly outmatching us, is pragmatically and haughtily turning its back on us, thus hoping to squeeze in more easily through the barely opened door of Western democracy. Although we are continually proving the sincerity of our intentions, we are persistently regarded with bias, based on schemes and clich s. This deepens the feeling of loneliness. 18. In fact, every objective analyst admits that Bulgaria is a country which merits respect, which has a proverbial desire not to create new, but to help resolve existing problems in the Balkans. Our guiding principle is the conviction that by use of army and police, ethnic and religious problems cannot be resolved. We have been warning of the danger of the use of ethnic cleansing as a means, and now more and more becoming an objective of Balkan wrangles. We have been insisting that a peaceful solution to the Yugoslav crisis be found, by using all diplomatic means: for unconditional respect of existing realities in the Balkans; for the need for all countries of the region and bordering on it to mutually recognize each other, to declare that they have no territorial ambitions against each other, that they shall not take part with armed units in the bringing of the crisis under control, if after all external military intervention takes place as a last and unavoidable resort. 19. The sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro are the third heavy blow to our economy - after Iraq and Libya - which has also doomed us to a near complete communication isolation, to a cut-off from our Western European economic partners, to enormous losses. Although we painfully suffer from these sanctions, we are strictly observing them, because we are aware that it would be useless to expect guarantees from the European structures if we do not abide by their norms and rules - it is another matter that under this pressure Serbian society has consolidated and radicalized and Milosevic, his party and the chetniks of Sesel have gained impressive electoral victories. For us international treaties are binding, and the Human Rights Charter is foremost among them. In terms of its strict application, hardly another country of the region can rival Bulgaria. Yet it is indeed high time for the international organizations to grasp the complexity of the problem, of the unbearable weight of the sanctions for our country. Otherwise the people of Bulgaria shall feel cheated, left to bear alone the main hardships and to pull the burning chestnuts out of the fire for someone else. In addition to the direct losses everyone seems to be skinning us with all sorts of taxes, with high prices on additional services and extracting profits from our impasse. There exists a real danger that by the end of this year our losses will reach 3 billion dollars, and if added to those from the embargo against Libya and Iraq their total amount may reach half of the country's entire foreign debt. Dozens of entreprises, factories and trading companies are on the brink of bankruptcy, hundreds of thousands of people may lose their jobs. Notwithstanding the great desire of the new political elite (and its colossal efforts to appease the growing avalanche of objections in society against the severe losses, particularly in the harsh conditions of economic transition), the unprecedented political behaviour of adherence to international norms, it cannot be ruled out that Bulgaria's economy shall be reduced to such a critical State that the country may not be in a position to ensure the strict observance of the sanctions. It is very difficult to pursue a policy with a disillusioned, hungry and tired people. That would make even more difficult the further progress of economic reforms, and the path to democracy would become an interminable sequence of hardships and sufferings. A much too high price indeed. As the price of the sanctions against Serbia and Montenegro also become too great, Bulgaria would be seriously destabilized and would become yet another seat of tension in the Balkans. The saddest thing about these unhappy enough words is that they are the very truth. Our people deserve more understanding and at least a little support, because they are the direct victims of the sanctions imposed. 20. Bulgarian politicians have elaborated the main principles of the foreign policy and defence of the country, on which agreement has been reached among the main political forces. Among the principles already mentioned we should also add the aspiration for relations on equally good terms with all our neighbours; the rejection of the policy of forming axes and alliances with some Balkan States against others; the efforts to integrate into the leading organizations and processes such as CSCE, NATO, WEU and the EC. From a strategic viewpoint, a longer-term programme for the spiritual and physical survival of the State and the nation in the period of transition from communism to democracy is necesary. 21. Fate is not generous to us. Yesterday we were on the eastern side of the Iron Curtain, today war is raging not far from our boundaries. This time, however, the salvation of those drowning will not be exclusively their own business. It will depend on the common efforts of the whole continent. Maybe, in someone's plans, countries like ours shall have the honour to serve as a cordon sanitaire or as a buffer zone - both for detaching the rich North from the poor South, as well as Catholic Europe from rising Islam, but such intentions are untenable. Bosnia is the key to the solution or to the aggravation of the crisis. Bosnia is a symbol and an omen from history. A defeat there would mean a failure of the CSCE and a discreditation of the Atlantic Alliance. It may detonate the outrage of the Islamic world and may definitively transform the war from ethnic into religious. Then it will hardly remain confined to fierce firing between Arab Mujaheddin and Russian "Afghans". 22. At the serial meetings of the Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC), intentions for a harder line have crystallized. The admission of Albania to the OIC was marked by a speech from its President S. Berisha, which criticized so-called Orthodox fundamentalism. The growing economic importance of the Islamic countries, which possess 60% of the global reserves of oil, and the strong impulse of Muslims all over the world to protect their suffering brothers in Bosnia indicate the magnitude of the problems for the Balkans and Europe which the agony in Bosnia and its possible spillover into Kosovo might create. 23. The principal steps towards bringing the Yugoslavian-crisis under control are measured, and the risks are calculated with maximum accuracy. In the case of a military intervention, the international forces will encounter a trained, intelligent, well-prepared for combat and determined army, supported by its people and believing its cause is just. Let us not forget all those conditions - terrain, climate, etc., which would give the Serb fighters an advantage - which may be measured in enormous losses for the enemy. 24. Serbia is ready for battle, but inside the country the understanding that the confrontation with the international community has no perspective will grow. The multilateral pressure on Serbia will increase and its isolation deepen. Regardless of the successful and rather brutal diplomatic manoeuvres of the Serbian leadership, which brought about the dismal end of the Vance-Owen Plan, the growing bellicosity of the Croats, and the deadlock in which the Muslims have found themselves, there exist quite a few chances that the current talks in Geneva may result in an agreement for peace (which is the lesser evil - just as democracy is - not an optimal solution, but no-one has thought of anything better). That would mean placing the conflict under control and putting an end to hostilities. After that, the Balkans will need a long period of healing the wounds and settling the disputes. 25. The Balkan crisis contains lessons, which should be drawn particularly by Bulgaria. In the first place, when national interests are at stake, party objectives should be forgotten and no-one should think about obtaining political dividends. Secondly, events should receive objective coverage and not as they are seen in the West. In Bosnia, one cannot speak of a single perpetrator, but rather of more guilty and less guilty. The objective coverage means not only the denouncement of the Serb chetniks and of their masterminds in Belgrade, but also the understanding that we are eternal neighbours with Serbia and that our peoples are close in ethnic, cultural and religious respect. Thirdly, the morals of the rich countries are not an absolute truth. They are frequently vulnerable, and in the case of Macedonia we have encountered double standards, a recurrence of thinking dating back to the end of the previous, and the beginning of the present, century. A thinking characterized by indifference towards the Balkan peoples. The delay of Macedonia's recognition is turning it into a dangerous focal point of tension. 26. In many reports - both in the North Atlantic Assembly as well as in the Assembly of the WEU - similar schemes and allegations are repeated with surprising consistency, which demonstrates the force of habit and the weakness of one-sided information. Attention is devoted to unfounded allegations regarding Bulgaria's territorial ambitions against Macedonia over the existence of a Macedonian (which is even labelled "large") minority in Bulgaria, concerning our participation in a purely fictitious Islamic alliance with Turkey and Albania, as a counterbalance of an alliance between Russia and Greece (although 90% of our population is Christian) etc. Our primary concern was to have Macedonia established as a State and a subject of international law, separated from the disintegrating Yugoslav area. In this way, by the simultaneous recognition nearly two years ago of Croatia, Slovenia, Macedonia and Bosnia-Herzegovina, we have provided valuable proof of our intention to pursue an autonomous and independent policy of our conviction that the States of the region should have the same status, should be sovereign and enjoy equal rights, provided they observe the rules and norms of the UN. The system of government, the free choice of a people - this for us is the most important aspect in international relations. When we recognize for example Croatia, we are doing it without conditions or reservations regarding to which part of that country's population our act should apply. We recognize the system of government of the whole people, no matter what its ethnic affiliation or how it defines its own self- consciousness. For us this is an internal problem of the country, of its people and a matter of personal choice for each individual citizen. Just as we have always avoided interfering in the internal affairs of any people, we are firmly opposed to any misinterpretation of our history, to any encroachment on our national memory, on century-old values on which the essence of our ethic system is founded. Regrettably and inexplicably, at the acceptance of Macedonia to the UN, the President of this Republic allowed such encroachment in his speech. If we add to this fact that the Constitution of Macedonia contains some articles to which we have been objecting for a long time; and also the use by this State of some symbols which provoke quite understandable disagreement; when we add the incessant hostile campaign which the Macedonian media are conducting against Bulgaria, it may become clear why a conviction has been forming in Bulgaria, that our attitude towards the present government of Macedonia should be corrected to a certain extent. In that sense it is not at all incidental that on a number of issues our positions are similar to those of Greece -it is a result of common concerns and common interests. 27. It is difficult to evaluate how the trend towards permeating the coming decades with ethnic and religious conflicts shall be projected on the possible rapprochements on a religious basis in our region - Catholic (Croatia, Slovenia, Austria and Hungary); Orthodox (Serbia, Montenegro, Macedonia, Bulgaria, Romania and Greece); Islamic (Albania, Bosnia, Turkey and the Muslim minorities in neighbouring countries) - some circles are already contemplating the idea of expansion of Islam into Europe through these minority "islands" and by creating the first Muslim State on the continent. Old memories of glory with an imperial taste are being awakened - Russian, Turkish, Austro-Hungarian Empires. Thus, an acute contradiction is generated between the necessity of an approach adequate for the end of the century, which would reflect the tendencies dictated by the economy - integration, the creation of supranational structures and synthesis - and the heavy as millstones burdened memories - mutual suspicions and century old disputes, which are working towards disintegration, fragmentation and collapse. 28. The first main conclusion of this analysis is that since indeed the Euroatlantic security area is a common and unified one, problems should be resolved by integrated efforts, with equitable involvement of the enormous intellectual, moral and rich in positive energy potential of the former socialist countries, whose speedy affiliation with the values of democracy through an intensive support for the normal development of their political and economic reforms, is vital not only for themselves, but also for Western civilization. Without us, the peoples of Eastern Europe, it would no longer be possible to achieve either a new identity, or elaborate and implement a common foreign and security policy. 29. The other main conclusion of this analysis is that today the Balkans are like a testing ground for the democratic societies on both sides of the Atlantic. If no adequate model is devised of settling the crisis of political behaviour, of new thinking, then the events in this permanently explosive region may one day become the common fate of our world, which is so vulnerable but deserves a better destiny.